I’m Thinking Thoughts about Twitter (6 hours ago)

OK, let's make this Praxis thing a little more interesting. Who's willing to bet that five years from now, Twitter will be as popular as it is today? Anyone? Because I'll take the other side of that bet, in a heartbeat. Hell, I'll even give you two years.

You should have a huge advantage over me in this little wagering exercise. For one thing, I haven't done exhaustive research into Twitter -- I haven't done any research, for that matter. What's more, I've never even used it (and yes, I've heard that you have to use it before you can truly appreciate its genius).

My view on the matter comes from one source and one source only: my gut. And that gut informs me that Twitter is a fad, a fad that before we know it will be going the way of the 8-track tape. There are just too many factors working against it:

1. It's risen too quickly. Twitter was introduced just three years ago, and today it's discussed everywhere. To me, anything or anyone that becomes that popular, that quickly, is bound for an equally rapid decline.

2. The mainstream media are fully on board. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but doesn't it feel like the mainstream media are invested in the popularity of Twitter? Did you see the June 15th cover of TIME magazine? "I've written this week's TIME cover story about how Twitter is changing the way we live -- and showing us the future of innovation." Changing the way we live? The future of innovation?

Claims this far-reaching are the kiss of death for any new technology. (By the way, with all due respect to my friends at TIME, here's an interesting quote from the November 1, 1993, issue: "Virtual-reality hype is gradually giving way to virtual-reality reality." Hold on . . . damn . . . I know my VR glasses are around here somewhere . . . )

3. Twitter serves no useful purpose. Look, there are plenty of people I love, like, admire, and respect. But if reading their random, 140-character-or-fewer thoughts constitutes a "useful purpose," then I absolutely need to get a life. And that says nothing about the people who think their own random, 140-character-or-fewer thoughts are so fascinating that I'd want to read each and every one of them. And on a related note . . .

4. Any product or technology that is so mercilessly the butt of jokes has little hope for long-term success. If you read Doonesbury, you'll know exactly what I'm talking about. You don't hear people ridiculing Facebook, by the way (which may also be a fad, but which I'm convinced will be around a lot longer than Twitter).

5. Twitter is extremely limited. I'm not just talking about the character limit, but the fact that Twitter does only one thing. Yeah, I hear you: The simplicity of Twitter is one of the things people like. And I'll admit, doing one thing, and doing it really well, is not necessarily bad -- just ask the people who have stock in Google. But after you read this reason, please go back and reread reason No. 3.

Actually, I lied a little bit about not having done any research into Twitter. Someone passed along an article on Twitter's retention statistics. Apparently, Twitter has only about a 40% U.S. retention rate (it had been at only 30% for most of the past 12 months). In other words, 60% of people using Twitter don't use it again the following month. Twitter's retention rate is much worse than Facebook's and MySpace's when they were relatively new.

So, still eager to lay out a little dinero? If you're a bit skittish, no worries. We don't have to use real money -- we can bet on Second Life. Call me if you're interested -- and don't forget -- to make things easier, just pick up the phone and use voice recognition to dial. Or, if you feel compelled to make this wager in person, just hop on your Segway and head on over. (Where ARE those VR glasses, by the way -- maybe the same place I put the pet rock?)